Tuesday, December 21, 2010

The Latest 60 Day Outlook for Northwest South Dakota

Friday, October 22, 2010

The Very Long Range Outlook

Part of what we do is making extended weather outlooks. You know about the 7-day forecasts you see on the web and TV, but we do something a little different. Enhancing a technique we've used for more than 25 years, we make what we call The Hovmoller Outlook. The work that goes into them is much more than an analysis of Hovmoller diagrams, but in interviews the name stuck.

We make these outlooks for regions of the country and send them out on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can subscribe to The Hovmoller Outlook for less than $10 a month. Here's a sample:

Subscribe by going to OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart. We'll send you the next issue that covers your region.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Stormy Weather is Coming

Scattered high clouds will be overhead today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be nice and warm under the mostly sunny skies, reaching the 60s today and around 70 tomorrow.

A storm system working across the Southwest today and tomorrow will turn to the northeast Friday, spreading clouds up across us. Even though the sun will gradually fade away Friday, temperatures will still pop up to around 70. I should stop while I’m ahead.

But I won’t. Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and highs of 47-52.  We’ll have more clouds than sun on Sunday with a high of 51-55.

Oh – and there will be flurries on Tuesday, perhaps enough snow over the Bear Lodge Mountains to turn things white.

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Dry Until Friday

Temperatures just before sunrise were in the 50-55 range this morning. Some places in the Black Hills saw morning lows only in the upper 60s:  Spearfish, Custer State Park and Mt. Rushmore.

A bubble of warm air is overhead and that will allow the temperature to shoot up into the 70s this morning and then level out in low 80s  this afternoon as a cold front moves through. That cold front will bring us gusty north winds to 25 mph after 2pm. Clouds will gradually thicken up this afternoon, too.

Tomorrow's temperatures will be back to near-normal with readings in around 70, then we'll be back to the upper 70s on Thursday.

The atmosphere moistens up Friday with an increase in the cloud cover and by late in the day there will be an increasing chance of rain. There will be a few showers Friday night into Saturday morning morning and then the clouds will thin out Saturday afternoon.

The sea-surface temperatures of the northeast Pacific Ocean are cooling down and will bring us a dramatic shift in weather towards the end of the month - and set us up for a colder-than-normal November, December, January and February.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea surface temperatures compared to normal. Blues show areas 0.5-3.0C colder than normal, yellow indicates 0.5-2.0C warmer than normal and red is more than 3C warmer than normal.

Friday, October 01, 2010

A Dry Weekend

We won't saying good-bye to this warm, dry weather pattern for another two weeks. Since soil conditions are in good shape (greens and blues are moist, browns and yellows are dry) another two weeks should not be a problem. Wyoming, however, needs moisture and it appears they won't get anything substantial for another three weeks.


Its a quiet day around here and across much of the country. Rain will continue across much of the Northeast and a a few showers will be over the Southwest. Otherwise there will be plenty of sunshine to go around.

For us - skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon with scattered clouds. The clouds will thicken up overnight and then move off to the southeast early tomorrow afternoon. There will be a good chance of frost across North Dakota and the northeast half of South Dakota tonight  despite the the thin cloud cover. After a smattering of morning clouds, much of tomorrow afternoon will be sunny, as will be Sunday morning. Clouds will be develop move in from the west on Monday and Tuesday will be partly sunny with a slim chance of a shower.

Highs today and Saturday will be mainly in the 60s, then mainly in the 70s for Sunday through Tuesday.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

More Sunshine

Ho - hum, another sunny day. There will be a few clouds around on Saturday and the next chance of showers will be Tuesday. The normal high is 67 and low 45.

Rapid City forecast highs:
Today 73-77
Friday 73-77
Saturday 69-74
Sunday 78-83
Monday 81-86