About 3 or 4 years ago, when I wrote a weekly column for the Rapid City Journal, I wrote how the drought was going to end. South Dakota's state climatologist, people at the USDA and others would go on and on about how the drought was going to last for another decade and how water levels in reservoirs and on the Missouri would take years to recover.
I have observed in years past that droughts and wet periods alike can end very quickly. I have observed that processes such as the refilling of reservoirs and natural lakes can happen very quickly. I don't need a computer model - it's all observable.
Guess what? I predicted that all of the boat docks the government built on Lake Oahe would soon be driftwood. This year Oahe is up some 20-25 feet from the peak of the drought and all of the money spent, wasted on what is not driftwood.
Pactola, which was supposed to take years to refill - according the people who supposedly know more than I - is 3.4 feet short of full as of March 6 and the snowmelt has yet to begin. Pactola recovered from a drought in the 1990s, too. The experts are surprised. I am not because I observe.
Belle Fourche - Orman Reservoir is within inches of being full. Now water is being divereted and will cause flooding as far down as the Cheyenne River.
But, there is bad news. Up to 9 inches of water is sitting in the snowpack in the northern Black Hills and when it melts there will be a massive amount of flooding. Spearfish, Whitewood, Sturgis, Belle Fourche and other towns will see whole sections under water. Areas downstream of Pactola - including Rapid Valley - will see flooding. It won't be pretty.
And - the Deep Underground Lab at Lead will see slow progress removing water from the old mine as water pours in a rates faster than the pumps can move it out.
But the good news: Aquifers will refill and wells will flow this year.
And, if we can get one or two more wet, heavy snows of 10 to 20 inches each, accompanied by 40 mph wind, stock dams will be in excellent shape.
Yes, dry weather after July will likely sap the moisture out of plants with shallow roots, but drought is over and once again people will be able to irrigate.
