The Very Long Range Outlook

Part of what we do is making extended weather outlooks. You know about the 7-day forecasts you see on the web and TV, but we do something a little different. Enhancing a technique we've used for more than 25 years, we make what we call The Hovmoller Outlook. The work that goes into them is much more than an analysis of Hovmoller diagrams, but in interviews the name stuck.

We make these outlooks for regions of the country and send them out on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can subscribe to The Hovmoller Outlook for less than $10 a month. Here's a sample:

Subscribe by going to OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart. We'll send you the next issue that covers your region.

Stormy Weather is Coming

Scattered high clouds will be overhead today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be nice and warm under the mostly sunny skies, reaching the 60s today and around 70 tomorrow.

A storm system working across the Southwest today and tomorrow will turn to the northeast Friday, spreading clouds up across us. Even though the sun will gradually fade away Friday, temperatures will still pop up to around 70. I should stop while I’m ahead.

But I won’t. Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and highs of 47-52.  We’ll have more clouds than sun on Sunday with a high of 51-55.

Oh – and there will be flurries on Tuesday, perhaps enough snow over the Bear Lodge Mountains to turn things white.

Dry Until Friday

Temperatures just before sunrise were in the 50-55 range this morning. Some places in the Black Hills saw morning lows only in the upper 60s:  Spearfish, Custer State Park and Mt. Rushmore.

A bubble of warm air is overhead and that will allow the temperature to shoot up into the 70s this morning and then level out in low 80s  this afternoon as a cold front moves through. That cold front will bring us gusty north winds to 25 mph after 2pm. Clouds will gradually thicken up this afternoon, too.

Tomorrow's temperatures will be back to near-normal with readings in around 70, then we'll be back to the upper 70s on Thursday.

The atmosphere moistens up Friday with an increase in the cloud cover and by late in the day there will be an increasing chance of rain. There will be a few showers Friday night into Saturday morning morning and then the clouds will thin out Saturday afternoon.

The sea-surface temperatures of the northeast Pacific Ocean are cooling down and will bring us a dramatic shift in weather towards the end of the month - and set us up for a colder-than-normal November, December, January and February.

Sea surface temperatures compared to normal. Blues show areas 0.5-3.0C colder than normal, yellow indicates 0.5-2.0C warmer than normal and red is more than 3C warmer than normal.

Near-Record Heat Today

Temperatures will be near record highs today across Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska with readings in the upper 80s and low 90s. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s across western North Dakota and eastern Montana.

The rest of the week, however, will be much cooler with temperatures ranging from the low 80s from Wyoming to the Nebraska Panhandle, to the mid 70s across northeast Wyoming, western South Dakota and eastern Montana. Meanwhile temperatures will be mid 60s over western and central North Dakota.
Temperatures for the weekend will range from the upper 70s over central North Dakota and central South Dakota to the upper 80s over Wyoming and central Montana.

Sunny and Warm

With the start of the archery deer hunting season comes a little warmer weather,  too warm on Sunday to leave a carcass out very long.

We'll be mostly cloud-free until about 7pm Sunday which will make for good color contrast if you're taking pictures of the leaves this weekend. The sky will be a deeper blue Sunday morning - and deeper yet Sunday afternoon. 

The next chance of significant rain will be in about 10 days when moisture from the Gulf of Mexico's tropical storms sweep up this way.

Rapid City's Forecast:
Today... Sunny. High 70-75.
Tomorrow.. Sunny. High 82-87.
Monday... Partly sunny. High 72-77.
Tuesday... Scattered clouds. High 83-88.

First Day of Autumn

If you have read anything I have written in the last several Septembers, I know that I make a much bigger deal of meteorological autumn than astronomical autumn. Meteorological autumn, which begins September 1 tends to follow the change in the weather much closer. But enough of that. How about today's Black Hills forecast?

The sun should peek out late this afternoon with  partly sunny skies over Rapid City by 3pm while mostly sunny skies develop over the far southwest corner of the state by 5pm. The northern Hills will remain mostly cloudy.  Highs today will range from 55-60 with readings of 64-69 at Edgemont and Ardmore.

Skies will be clear by midnight revealing a full harvest moon. Areas of fog will develop overnight but the fog will burn off by 10am tomorrow. Lows will be 36-41 with some valley frost.

A few clouds will move in from the northwest tomorrow afternoon. Highs 72-77.

The weekend will be mostly sunny with highs of 69-74 Saturday and 75-80 on Sunday.

Cooler, Wet Weather

Showers and thunderstorms have been falling over central South Dakota already this morning, moving toward the northeast. It is the first wave of what will be several waves of rain that will pass overhead during the next 36 to 48 hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight across much of South Dakota and Nebraska.

Rainfall through Friday morning will be heaviest where they don't need it: Eastern South Dakota and Minnesota.

Today is much cooler than yesterday with highs expected to between 68 and 75 and tomorrow will be cooler yet. A large amount of moisture will be coming up out of Mexico Wednesday spreading locally heavy rain across Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah.

Weather map for Thursday showing rain areas, the low and fronts.

That storm system will spread across the Great Plains on Thursday. A few areas of western and central South Dakota will see 1.5" to 2" of rain Thursday (along with highs in the 50s).

Wildfire Threat

Today's warm, dry weather will be a sharp contrast from the weekend's cool dampness. Actually, yesterday was delightful across the Black Hills where there was abundant sunshine and temperatures were in the 70s.

Hot, dry weather i s blowing in from the southwest today where readings in central Wyoming topped 90 Sunday afternoon. Our temperatures will be in the 80s today, although it will likely be in the low 90s from Edgemont to Pine Ridge. The humidity will be low, winds will be gusting to over 30 mph and those conditions elevate the fire danger to the extreme category as the grass goes through its fall drying.

A cold front will make today's heat short-lived. We'll be back into the 70s for highs tomorrow and as clouds increase and showers develop Wednesday it will only make it into the 60s.

The Future
Hurricane Igor blew past Bermuda overnight. It will head for the southern tip of Greenland and then loop back to the west to northeast Canada later this week.

The storm track will be just to our north for the next two weeks, allowing snow and cold air to build across the north half of Canada while we sit in mild air. Sub-zero temperatures will develop north of the Arctic Circle - waiting to make its first plunge towards the equator. You may be thinking about Fall coming Wednesday night. I've got a pretty good idea what the rest of Fall will be like so I am already thinking about Winter.

Here it is mid-September and the threat of severe thunderstorms continues.
Thunderstorms will develop from southeast Montana and eastern Wyoming, south to Kansas late this afternoon and evening then move to the east and northeast. The threat is mainly from large hail (up to 2.5") and wind gusts to 70 mph. The thunderstorms should develop between 3pm and 6pm and then begin to weaken toward midnight. Keep in mind that its unusual to have severe weather so late into the night in September.

Pockets of 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible with this weather system. The bulk of the rain will fall before 6am Wednesday but showers will linger through the day, gradually becoming few and far between.

Temperatures today will warm to 75-80, cool into upper 40s tonight, and then crawl back to 57-62 tomorrow afternoon (it will be in the 50s across the Black Hills).  Readings will be to 74-79 on Thursday but only reach about 60 on Friday with mostly cloudy skies and a few showers.

I'll do some Tweets today on the severe weather. There's a lot of action going on around the country and I am following that on Facebook. You can find a link to my Facebook at OrrWeather.com.

Night time temperatures are getting cooler and cooler as nighttime lengthens. Overnight temperatures are regularly dipping into the 40s and then popping back into the 70s. That cycle will continue this week with three exceptions: today, Wednesday and Friday.

This morning's satellite image.

Today we'll see the temperature reach the 80-85 range (73-78 at the higher elevations) under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will thicken tomorrow and a few showers will move in from the southwest after 4pm. Look for slightly cooler readings tomorrow at 74-79. The showers will be more likely tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, then they will taper off Wednesday afternoon but not early enough to keep Wednesday from being a chilly day at 58-63 degrees for the highest temperature.

We'll be right back to the mid 70s Thursday but only 64-69 on Friday as clouds hover near a cold front. Hurricane Igor will miss the U.S. but be caught up in a large low over eastern Canada. The low will draw down air from the Arctic and we'll see an increasing threat of frost and freezing temperatures over the next 2 weeks. So far, it is not looking like an exceptional cool down as we head through the first month of Autumn. October may bring a couple of unusually cold days, however.

Severe thunderstorms will erupt this afternoon. There is a risk for tornadoes across southwest North Dakota, northwest South Dakota and southeast Montana.

There severe thunderstorm season isn't quite over. There is a risk for severe thunderstorms from about 2pm until 10p today with the storms developing over the Black Hills, eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle, then developing to the northeast and east. The severe weather threat extends from the Nebraska Panhandle, across western South Dakota to eastern Montana and western North Dakota.
This morning's satellite image should quiet weather across us, but just off to the west are a lot of clouds associated with a large upper air disturbance. The thunderstorms will erupt as that systems comes closer to us.  It will pass off to the east tomorrow night and Saturday.

What's left of Hermine caused 2 deaths in Texas. Storms raged over Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas overnight. Heavy rains of up to 3 inches will fall on Missouri today and tonight.
For us, mostly sunny skies this morning will give way to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Temperatures will reach 85-90, then slip into the 60s with the storms, rebounding a little between storms. Golf ball size hail and wind to 80mph will be possible. The thunderstorms will taper to showers by 10pm as temperatures fall to 45-50 for lows.
Tomorrow we'll see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Highs will be 64-69 on a northwest wind gusting to 45mph. Saturday will be mostly sunny and very pleasant as afternoon readings climb to 70-75. It will be about 80 on Sunday.

I will send out updates on Facebook and Twitter.

The holiday shortened week means Saturday is right around the corner. If you follow the logic that today is already here, there are only three days of work or school left (Wednesday, Thursday and Friday) until the weekend.

The best bet for outdoor plans will be to get them done today or tomorrow. The risk of showers increases Thursday and Friday in time for high school football.

We are between storm systems today. Warmer air will pump up from the south tomorrow and Thursday as a low pressure center develops over western South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. There could be a random thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, but the better chance will be Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms form. The best chance will be Friday as the low moves off to the east and cooler air pulls down from Canada. The weekend should be very pleasant.

This is, of course, the autumnal pattern: A gradual cool down marked by wide swings in temperature every few days. We'll see fewer and fewer days with afternoon highs in the 80s as we get into October and an increasing number of frosty mornings.

Look for sunshine today with highs of 70-75. Tomorrow's sky will be dotted with clouds and there is a small chance of a late afternoon or evening shower as winds pick up from the southeast. Highs will be 77-82.
There will be a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Highs will be 75-80. Scattered showers will linger for Friday with a high of 68-73.

You can follow the Tweets at twitter.com/chrisorrccm and FB at Chris Orr Weather

About 3 or 4 years ago, when I wrote a weekly column for the Rapid City Journal, I wrote how the drought was going to end. South Dakota's state climatologist, people at the USDA and others would go on and on about how the drought was going to last for another decade and how water levels in reservoirs and on the Missouri would take years to recover.

I have observed in years past that droughts and wet periods alike can end very quickly. I have observed that processes such as the refilling of reservoirs and natural lakes can happen very quickly. I don't need a computer model - it's all observable.

Guess what? I predicted that all of the boat docks the government built on Lake Oahe would soon be driftwood. This year Oahe is up some 20-25 feet from the peak of the drought and all of the money spent, wasted on what is not driftwood.

Pactola, which was supposed to take years to refill - according the people who supposedly know more than I - is 3.4 feet short of full as of March 6 and the snowmelt has yet to begin. Pactola recovered from a drought in the 1990s, too. The experts are surprised. I am not because I observe.

Belle Fourche - Orman Reservoir is within inches of being full. Now water is being divereted and will cause flooding as far down as the Cheyenne River.

This, of course is all good news because the drought is kaput.

But, there is bad news. Up to 9 inches of water is sitting in the snowpack in the northern Black Hills and when it melts there will be a massive amount of flooding. Spearfish, Whitewood, Sturgis, Belle Fourche and other towns will see whole sections under water. Areas downstream of Pactola - including Rapid Valley - will see flooding. It won't be pretty.

And - the Deep Underground Lab at Lead will see slow progress removing water from the old mine as water pours in a rates faster than the pumps can move it out.

But the good news: Aquifers will refill and wells will flow this year.

And, if we can get one or two more wet, heavy snows of 10 to 20 inches each, accompanied by 40 mph wind, stock dams will be in excellent shape.

Yes, dry weather after July will likely sap the moisture out of plants with shallow roots, but drought is over and once again people will be able to irrigate.

Its time to dry out. At least for most of us. Showers and thunderstorms will rumble across Wyoming, Montana and parts of North Dakota on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into the 70s Monday and Tuesday after of the cold front... maybe even an 80 or two. Behind the front temperatures will slip back into the 50s and 60s.

The next big storm holds off until the last week of April.

Snow pack across the Black Hills, Wyoming and Montana is still thick. That's excellent news for above- and below-ground runoff. It looks like good fishing and it looks like aquifers feeding wells will be on the rise. The USGS also thinks Pactola will rise this year.

There will be a smattering of light snow showers over the western Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming through the 14th of March... with mixed rain and snow over western and central Nebraska. Temperatures will undulate, as they usually do at this time of year, swinging up into thr 50s and 60s around the 10th - but otherwise holding mainly in the 30s and 40s.

A storm system blows in off the Pacific Ocean, reaching Wyoming and Montana on the 14th and spreading across North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska on the 15th and 16th. This system will be capable of pumping out at least a foot of snow across portions of eastern Wyoming, eastern Montana and western South Dakota.

Another strong storm system will hit the area around March 19 with heavy snow, sleet and a risk of freezing rain.

A lot of very cold, sub-zero air lingers over northern Canada, the Arctic region and Alaska. Son't look for an early Spring at this point.

Snow showers will be the rule across WY, MT, ND and SD Monday night and Tuesday. The heaviest accumulations will be across the northern and central Black Hills where 3 to 6 inches of snow will be likely. The rest of the region will pick up 1 to 3 inches.

Wind will be an issue Tuesday across ND, SD and northern Nebraska - with wind gsust to 40 mph whipping the snow around.