The Very Long Range Outlook

Part of what we do is making extended weather outlooks. You know about the 7-day forecasts you see on the web and TV, but we do something a little different. Enhancing a technique we've used for more than 25 years, we make what we call The Hovmoller Outlook. The work that goes into them is much more than an analysis of Hovmoller diagrams, but in interviews the name stuck.

We make these outlooks for regions of the country and send them out on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can subscribe to The Hovmoller Outlook for less than $10 a month. Here's a sample:

Subscribe by going to OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart. We'll send you the next issue that covers your region.

Stormy Weather is Coming

Scattered high clouds will be overhead today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be nice and warm under the mostly sunny skies, reaching the 60s today and around 70 tomorrow.

A storm system working across the Southwest today and tomorrow will turn to the northeast Friday, spreading clouds up across us. Even though the sun will gradually fade away Friday, temperatures will still pop up to around 70. I should stop while I’m ahead.

But I won’t. Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and highs of 47-52.  We’ll have more clouds than sun on Sunday with a high of 51-55.

Oh – and there will be flurries on Tuesday, perhaps enough snow over the Bear Lodge Mountains to turn things white.

Dry Until Friday

Temperatures just before sunrise were in the 50-55 range this morning. Some places in the Black Hills saw morning lows only in the upper 60s:  Spearfish, Custer State Park and Mt. Rushmore.

A bubble of warm air is overhead and that will allow the temperature to shoot up into the 70s this morning and then level out in low 80s  this afternoon as a cold front moves through. That cold front will bring us gusty north winds to 25 mph after 2pm. Clouds will gradually thicken up this afternoon, too.

Tomorrow's temperatures will be back to near-normal with readings in around 70, then we'll be back to the upper 70s on Thursday.

The atmosphere moistens up Friday with an increase in the cloud cover and by late in the day there will be an increasing chance of rain. There will be a few showers Friday night into Saturday morning morning and then the clouds will thin out Saturday afternoon.

The sea-surface temperatures of the northeast Pacific Ocean are cooling down and will bring us a dramatic shift in weather towards the end of the month - and set us up for a colder-than-normal November, December, January and February.

Sea surface temperatures compared to normal. Blues show areas 0.5-3.0C colder than normal, yellow indicates 0.5-2.0C warmer than normal and red is more than 3C warmer than normal.

Near-Record Heat Today

Temperatures will be near record highs today across Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska with readings in the upper 80s and low 90s. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s across western North Dakota and eastern Montana.

The rest of the week, however, will be much cooler with temperatures ranging from the low 80s from Wyoming to the Nebraska Panhandle, to the mid 70s across northeast Wyoming, western South Dakota and eastern Montana. Meanwhile temperatures will be mid 60s over western and central North Dakota.
Temperatures for the weekend will range from the upper 70s over central North Dakota and central South Dakota to the upper 80s over Wyoming and central Montana.

Sunny and Warm

With the start of the archery deer hunting season comes a little warmer weather,  too warm on Sunday to leave a carcass out very long.

We'll be mostly cloud-free until about 7pm Sunday which will make for good color contrast if you're taking pictures of the leaves this weekend. The sky will be a deeper blue Sunday morning - and deeper yet Sunday afternoon. 

The next chance of significant rain will be in about 10 days when moisture from the Gulf of Mexico's tropical storms sweep up this way.

Rapid City's Forecast:
Today... Sunny. High 70-75.
Tomorrow.. Sunny. High 82-87.
Monday... Partly sunny. High 72-77.
Tuesday... Scattered clouds. High 83-88.