The Very Long Range Outlook

Part of what we do is making extended weather outlooks. You know about the 7-day forecasts you see on the web and TV, but we do something a little different. Enhancing a technique we've used for more than 25 years, we make what we call The Hovmoller Outlook. The work that goes into them is much more than an analysis of Hovmoller diagrams, but in interviews the name stuck.

We make these outlooks for regions of the country and send them out on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can subscribe to The Hovmoller Outlook for less than $10 a month. Here's a sample:

Subscribe by going to OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart. We'll send you the next issue that covers your region.

First Day of Autumn

If you have read anything I have written in the last several Septembers, I know that I make a much bigger deal of meteorological autumn than astronomical autumn. Meteorological autumn, which begins September 1 tends to follow the change in the weather much closer. But enough of that. How about today's Black Hills forecast?

The sun should peek out late this afternoon with  partly sunny skies over Rapid City by 3pm while mostly sunny skies develop over the far southwest corner of the state by 5pm. The northern Hills will remain mostly cloudy.  Highs today will range from 55-60 with readings of 64-69 at Edgemont and Ardmore.

Skies will be clear by midnight revealing a full harvest moon. Areas of fog will develop overnight but the fog will burn off by 10am tomorrow. Lows will be 36-41 with some valley frost.

A few clouds will move in from the northwest tomorrow afternoon. Highs 72-77.

The weekend will be mostly sunny with highs of 69-74 Saturday and 75-80 on Sunday.

Wildfire Threat

Today's warm, dry weather will be a sharp contrast from the weekend's cool dampness. Actually, yesterday was delightful across the Black Hills where there was abundant sunshine and temperatures were in the 70s.

Hot, dry weather i s blowing in from the southwest today where readings in central Wyoming topped 90 Sunday afternoon. Our temperatures will be in the 80s today, although it will likely be in the low 90s from Edgemont to Pine Ridge. The humidity will be low, winds will be gusting to over 30 mph and those conditions elevate the fire danger to the extreme category as the grass goes through its fall drying.

A cold front will make today's heat short-lived. We'll be back into the 70s for highs tomorrow and as clouds increase and showers develop Wednesday it will only make it into the 60s.

The Future
Hurricane Igor blew past Bermuda overnight. It will head for the southern tip of Greenland and then loop back to the west to northeast Canada later this week.

The storm track will be just to our north for the next two weeks, allowing snow and cold air to build across the north half of Canada while we sit in mild air. Sub-zero temperatures will develop north of the Arctic Circle - waiting to make its first plunge towards the equator. You may be thinking about Fall coming Wednesday night. I've got a pretty good idea what the rest of Fall will be like so I am already thinking about Winter.

Here it is mid-September and the threat of severe thunderstorms continues.
Thunderstorms will develop from southeast Montana and eastern Wyoming, south to Kansas late this afternoon and evening then move to the east and northeast. The threat is mainly from large hail (up to 2.5") and wind gusts to 70 mph. The thunderstorms should develop between 3pm and 6pm and then begin to weaken toward midnight. Keep in mind that its unusual to have severe weather so late into the night in September.

Pockets of 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible with this weather system. The bulk of the rain will fall before 6am Wednesday but showers will linger through the day, gradually becoming few and far between.

Temperatures today will warm to 75-80, cool into upper 40s tonight, and then crawl back to 57-62 tomorrow afternoon (it will be in the 50s across the Black Hills).  Readings will be to 74-79 on Thursday but only reach about 60 on Friday with mostly cloudy skies and a few showers.

I'll do some Tweets today on the severe weather. There's a lot of action going on around the country and I am following that on Facebook. You can find a link to my Facebook at OrrWeather.com.

Night time temperatures are getting cooler and cooler as nighttime lengthens. Overnight temperatures are regularly dipping into the 40s and then popping back into the 70s. That cycle will continue this week with three exceptions: today, Wednesday and Friday.

This morning's satellite image.

Today we'll see the temperature reach the 80-85 range (73-78 at the higher elevations) under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will thicken tomorrow and a few showers will move in from the southwest after 4pm. Look for slightly cooler readings tomorrow at 74-79. The showers will be more likely tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, then they will taper off Wednesday afternoon but not early enough to keep Wednesday from being a chilly day at 58-63 degrees for the highest temperature.

We'll be right back to the mid 70s Thursday but only 64-69 on Friday as clouds hover near a cold front. Hurricane Igor will miss the U.S. but be caught up in a large low over eastern Canada. The low will draw down air from the Arctic and we'll see an increasing threat of frost and freezing temperatures over the next 2 weeks. So far, it is not looking like an exceptional cool down as we head through the first month of Autumn. October may bring a couple of unusually cold days, however.